Section 3 - PLAN SUBAREAS AND BOUNDARIES
(a) PLAN SUBAREAS
THE PLAN contains sixteen (16) PLAN SUBAREAS, twelve (12) of which represent unincorporated areas within the San Bernardino Valley and four (4) of which represent unincorporated areas within the Victor Valley. With two exceptions, the boundaries of these PLAN SUBAREAS will correspond exactly to the boundaries of the city spheres of influence as defined at any time by the Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) of San Bernardino County. The two exceptions are areas that are not contained in any city?s sphere of influence. These are 1) the Redlands ?Donut Hole? which is bounded by the City of Redlands on all sides and located north of Interstate 10 and west of State Route 30/210, and 2) the unincorporated areas of Devore and Glen Helen, which are bounded on the south and west by the City of Rialto Sphere of Influence, on the north by the San Bernardino National Forest, and on the east by the City of San Bernardino or its sphere of influence.
The PLAN SUBAREAS are:
1. Adelanto Sphere of Influence
2. Apple Valley Sphere of Influence
3. Chino Sphere of Influence
4. Colton Sphere of Influence
5. Devore/Glen Helen Unincorporated Areas
6. Fontana Sphere of Influence
7. Hesperia Sphere of Influence
8. Loma Linda Sphere of Influence
9. Montclair Sphere of Influence
10. Redlands “Donut Hole” Unincorporated Area
11. Redlands Sphere of Influence
12. Rialto Sphere of Influence
13. San Bernardino Sphere of Influence
14. Upland Sphere of Influence
15. Victorville Sphere of Influence
16. Yucaipa Sphere of Influence
Section 4 - GROWTH FORECASTS
(a) CONSISTENCY WITH SANBAG NEXUS STUDY GROWTH FORECAST DATA
The following Growth forecast data for THE PLAN is based upon the growth forecast data contained in the SANBAG Nexus Study. The SANBAG Nexus Study requires that local jurisdictions generate fair-share contributions from new development, or “target share amounts”, which are based upon growth forecast data reviewed and approved by local jurisdictions. In order to remain consistency with the SANBAG Nexus Study and generate the required “target share amounts”, THE PLAN utilizes the same forecast growth data.
(b) GROWTH FORECAST METHODOLOGY
The SANBAG Nexus Study describes the methodology for forecasting growth as follows:
?The calculation of fair share development contributions requires an estimate of projected growth for residential and non-residential development. The data set used as the starting point for projection of residential development (single and multi-family dwelling units) and non-residential development (retail and non-retail employment) was the 2030 local input provided as part of the growth forecasting process for the 2004 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). This iterative process, well-documented in the 2004 RTP of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), generates an initial forecast for the entire Southern California region by jurisdiction, which is then given to local jurisdictions for review, comment, and possible modification. The ?local input? 2030 data set was used for the Nexus Study because it was developed through the direct involvement of and review by each of the local jurisdictions. Each local jurisdiction signed off on its local input data in late 2002. These forecasts have been reviewed and updated by local jurisdictions in early and mid-2005?. [The County Planning Department reviewed and approved the forecasts as part of this process.]
The year 2004 was used as the base year for the analysis of growth forecasts. The 2004 dwelling unit totals by jurisdiction are based on California Department of Finance data. The 2004 employment data (retail and non-retail) was derived by adding one year of growth to the 2003 employment data reviewed by each of the local jurisdictions. The growth was estimated as 1/27th of the projected growth between 2003 and 2030?.?
By way of comparison, 12,640 new residential dwelling units were permitted by local jurisdictions in San Bernardino County in 2003 (California Department of Finance Table I-6). The projected growth of about 290,000 dwelling units over the next 26 years equates to an average annual rate of about 10,700 units, approximately equivalent to the average number permitted annually in San Bernardino County for 2001 through 2003. The annual rate in the mid-90s was as low as half that rate. Thus, the rate of growth contained in the projections for the Nexus Study would appear consistent with historical trends as well as with regionally accepted projections.?